The UK government has published the first independent risk assessment of the threats and opportunities the country is facing from climate change and called for public responses.

The purpose of the report is to enable government, local authorities, industry and civil society organisations to prepare in advance for the consequences of global warming.

The Climate Change Risk Assessment compares over 100 risks, based on the magnitude of the impact and the degree of certainty about the evidence base, to prioritise which require the most urgent attention in the near future.

Chief among these risks are:

• drier summers may reduce water availability, affecting both crop yields forests and wildfires, and public water supplies
• flooding and coastal erosion; 50,000 hectares are currently at risk but this could increase to 400,000 hectares by the middle of the century
• supply chain disruption for industries due to extreme events
• increased health and mortality risks due to high summer temperatures, high ozone levels and new diseases
• higher energy demand for cooling
• buildings affected by subsidence
• greater watercourse pollution due to reduced river flows
• reduction of wildlife and increase in invasive species.

Local authorities will be especially worried about the increased cost of road repairs due to potholes and melting tarmac, and train operators about the threat of track buckling due to heat stress.

For the whole of the UK, the has the responsibility of now responding to this by developing policy proposals for further consideration.

Environment secretary Caroline Spelman has asked for the public to respond to the report and give its own views on what should be done.

The devolved administrations in Wales and Scotland have also responded. A specific report has been produced for Scotland, which is particularly worried that changes in water temperature around its coast could have a negative impact on the quality of shellfish and the location of fish stocks.

The Scottish minister for environment and climate change Stewart Stevenson welcomed the conclusions and said that "the CCRA will contribute to the development of Scotland’s first Adaptation Programme, building a stronger, more resilient Scotland in the future”. He said this will be published for consultation on later in the year.

The Welsh environment minister, John Griffiths, said he will publish Wales' first Climate Change Strategy for Wales Annual Report in March. “For Wales, the Risk Assessment identifies some opportunities that are likely to emerge as a result of a changing climate," he said, "but the findings indicate that these will be vastly outweighed by the costs of managing adverse impacts".

He observed that flooding is a particular problem in Wales, as it is in most of the UK. “Not all flooding can be prevented but we can manage risks and reduce consequences."

Last year, Wales published a National Strategy for Flood and Coastal Erosion Risk Management to raise awareness of the risks and reduce the consequences.

“With almost £50 million from the European Regional Development Fund we are driving a programme of over £100 million to reduce flood and coastal erosion risk to over 3,000 properties through the construction of 29 schemes across Wales,” Griffiths added.

The CCRA report does outline some opportunities, but these are outweighed by the risks. The main opportunities relate to an extended tourist season, increased crop yields due to longer growing seasons and carbon dioxide fertilisation, and a likely fall in winter deaths as a result of milder temperatures.

The supplementary evidence report, peer reviewed by scientific and economics experts, also identifies significant gaps in evidence which will require further research.

Threats to business

Many risks are extensions of existing business risks, some of which are in a business's control and others outside of it.

Chief amongst these is high dependency on activities overseas, transport and communication links, the integrity of supply chains and the threats and opportunities that arise from the impacts of climate change in other countries.

The main threats facing businesses are related to flooding, heat and water resources. They include:

• damage to fixed assets, stock, etc.
• loss of business continuity due to flooding
• increased insurance claims and potential reduction in mortgage value of properties
• loss of assets due to sea level rise (including natural assets such as beaches and built assets such as tourist attractions, historical monuments, etc.)
• loss of productivity due to overheating and warm weather periods
• increased energy costs for summer cooling
• reduction in available water for abstraction.

There are opportunities, however, which arise from the move to a low carbon economy and the delivery of adaptation measures, which have potential to benefit the financial, utility, manufacturing and consultancy sectors. These include:

• targeted investment in flood risk management to reduce risks in key economic growth areas
• changes in domestic weather conditions increase market opportunities (e.g. agriculture may benefit from increased yields and tourism and leisure industries from better weather conditions)
• melting of the Arctic ice creates the opportunity for new trading routes with Asian markets
• by fully internalising climate change risks into fund management, new products for investors seeking climate resilient opportunities could be developed
• reduced winter heating costs.

The report notes that there may also be significant opportunities in retailing, the development of climate adaptation products related to cooling or water efficiency and the development of services for dealing with extreme weather and providing advice on climate risks and adaptation internationally.

_{Story: David Thorpe, News Editor}