A government briefing note details its latest thinking on how to make people save more energy, especially through the Green Deal and smart meters.
The government wants to find ways to make you switch off lights and unused appliances, wear different clothing according to the weather outside, and drive more efficiently.
The Parliamentary Office of Science and Technology (POST) has issued Energy Use Behaviour Change, a summary of research on the array of factors, policies, campaigns, carrots and sticks that can influence people's behaviour, with particular reference to the Green Deal and the smart meters programme.
It provides a fascinating insight into official thinking on how the public can be manipulated to save energy. Is this the nanny state? A totalitarian tendency? Or the correct approach of a concerned administration? Perhaps the answer depends on your ideological position...
A central scenario from the Committee on Climate Change (CCC) requires homes to save 98 mega-tonnes of CO2 (MtCO2) in the year 2030. That is 34% of the total required reduction from 2010 levels.
This depends upon consumers choosing to insulate 90% of lofts, 90% of cavity walls and 45% of solid walls, not to mention the uptake of more efficient appliances, adoption of low carbon technologies such as heat pumps, and changes in the way that they use energy.
The problem is that people don't always behave rationally, or listen to what politicians say.
So, like many a social engineering government in the past, the Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) has enlisted the help of models from sociology and psychology. It has picked Social Practice Theory (SPT), which considers energy-using behaviours such as cooking, showering and travelling to work as phenomena that need to be changed at the societal level.
And to understand psychology it has chosen the Triandis model, which splits behaviour into different components such as attitudes, emotions, habits and context.
From this, it has generated what it calls a 'ladder of interventions', that classifies interventions according to how severe they are. For example, here's a list of possible ways to encourage people to use energy saving light bulbs:
A good example of a successful regulatory measure is the 2005 rule that all new gas central‐heating boilers must be efficient condensing boilers. This led to condensing (including combi-condensing) boilers increasing in prevalence, from 10% in 2005 to 50% in 2009. The cashback scheme for old boilers was a further fiscal measure which led even more people to trade up to condensing boilers.
The POST note admits the failure of past government campaigns like 'Are you doing your bit?' and 'Act on CO2', because it has been realised that there is no evidence that providing information at a population level will lead to behaviour change.
The POST note goes on to say that "the success of the [Green Deal] depends on the trust of consumers in suppliers. However, trust in energy companies is low and more work will be needed to build trust and drive demand for Green Deal energy efficiency measures".
How will this be done? The civil servants come down in favour of giving us 'nudges'.
A nudge is a change to "any aspect of the context in which people make decisions that alters people's behaviour in a predictable way, without forbidding any options or significantly changing their economic incentives". An example is removing chocolate from the till point in a supermarket; banning chocolate or significantly raising its price is not a nudge.
Here's where smart meters come in; they are a change in the context. The note says: "The roll-out of smart meters with customer displays from 2014 will offer opportunities to nudge consumers to reduce their energy use. The information that they provide could be utilised to create nudges that increase the prominence of energy use whilst encouraging a reduction in consumption".
It adds that trials have shown reductions in electricity consumption of 3% to 19%, "though an average of 5% is realistic for larger-scale trials that include uninterested customers".
DECC, however, is conservatively projecting annual reductions of 2.8% in electricity use and 0.5% to 2% in gas use.
What else is going on in government to try and make us change into model citizens? The most bizarre-sounding is 'MINDSPACE', a framework technique used within the Behavioural Insights Team that is part of the Cabinet Office.
It was developed by the Institute for Government in collaboration with the Cabinet Office and builds on a checklist used by the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) called the 4 Es (enable, engage, exemplify and encourage).
The Behavioural Insights Team has organised a series of seminars across Whitehall to inform senior policy makers, including senior civil servants and ministers, on using MINDSPACE.
DECC has it own Customer Insight Team, which has recently run a training programme for staff based on social practice theory, the Triandis model and MINDSPACE.
Clearly, they have ways of making us change. Whether we'll change in the way they want remains to be seen.
Story: David Thorpe, News Editor